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Data Item Details


Name
Comparison of observed load against forecasted load – EU-27/EEA (Norway), June and December 2022 (%)
Source
ACER calculations based on data from ENTSO-E transparency platform.
Business Symbol
Reference
Figure 16
Comment
The figure aims to provide a comparison between Member States, showing the difference (in percent) of their observed load
against the forecasted load—considering the average difference over the months of June through December in 2022. The analysis
is based on the monthly total load data from the ENTSO-E transparency platform for the years of 2017 through 2022. Using the
data of the years 2017 through 2021, an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was trained to estimate the
total load for each month in 2022 per Member State—learning monthly patterns from previous years. For each Member State the
difference between the forecasted and the observed total load per month is calculated. Subsequently, we take the average over
the percentage deviation of the included months. By using the percentage deviation, we account for the individual differences in the
total load among the Member States. Cyprus and Malta were excluded due to inconsistent or incomplete data on the transparency
platform. The data for Luxemburg coincides with the German data as they belong to one bidding zone. In some Member States this
ARIMA estimation presents great differences compared to TSO estimations by end 2021, and therefore conclusions should be
taken carefully.

https://acer.europa.eu/Publications/2023_MMR_EmergencyMeasures.pdf

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country Average observed load against forecasted load (%)
AT−2.68
BE−4.55
BG−4.23
CZ−4.34
DE−7.26
DK−12.41
EE−.96
ES−.98
FI−13.94
FR−2.85
GR−8.01
HR−1.93
HU−6.34
IT−2.67
LT−5.88
LV−12.14
NL−4.79
NO−1.74
PL−5.82
PT0.91
RO−7.44
SE−4.74
SI−8.82
SK−13.37